CHRIS CLEGG'S DYNASTY FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS, NOTES, AND BUYS/SELLS (WEEK 18)
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 18 fantasy baseball news, notes, and buys/sells for dynasty leagues. Thanks for bearing with me. Due to the birth of my daughter, I am much more sleep-deprived, but I am ready to rock and roll with new dynasty news and notes!
Today's article will look at recent prospect call-ups like River Ryan and Nacho Alvarez Jr., as well as the surging Tyler Fitzgerald, along with several other dynasty-related news. This weekly series will take a look at various prospects and dynasty news and discuss fantasy implications. If you enjoy dynasty baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with the Joneses per se keeps you in the game and at the top of the standings. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so.
Keeping up with all the current happenings can help you stay ahead of your league mates. Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week, break down everything you need to know to be successful in a dynasty. Let's get to it. What do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 18 of the 2024 season?
Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups
Anytime the Dodgers call up a talented pitching prospect, you should pay attention. River Ryan began his career at Division Two UNC Pembroke, where he was a two-way player, showing strong skills as primarily a reliever and middle infielder. In one start he did make in college, he threw 141 pitches, showing the bulldog mentality he had, not willing to come off the mound to finish the game.
The Padres drafted him in the 11th round of 2021, where he was strictly a DH in rookie ball before the trade to Los Angeles changed everything. The Dodgers took the bat out of his hands and began to work on his development as a pitcher, where he started to excel. After a successful first season pitching in the Dodgers org in 2022, Ryan followed it up in 2023 with 104 innings and a 3.80 ERA in Double and Triple-A, striking out 110 batters while walking 46.
A shoulder injury delayed Ryan's start to 2024 until June, but a few innings did not keep the Dodgers from promoting him to the majors. In his MLB debut, Ryan tossed 5.1 scoreless innings with two strikeouts and three walks.
Ryan's arsenal features a fastball in the mid-90s that plays up due to the ride and extension Ryan gets from his athletic frame. His slider generates a ton of sweeping action, registering over 15 inches regularly while sitting in the upper 80s. The pitch is quite deceptive due to the late break that it gets.
His arsenal also features a strong curveball and changeup, with the curve sitting in the low-80s with a ton of downward movement. In contrast, the changeup shows nice fading action and depth, having a ton of separation from the fastball vertically and the slider horizontally.
Nacho Alvarez Jr. made his debut in Atlanta after Ozzie Albies went down with an injury. Alvarez has always been one of the best contact hitters in the Braves organization and one of the better pure hitters in the minors. He hit zero home runs in 202 Double-A plate appearances, and he hit seven home runs in 132 Triple-A trips to the plate. The slash line is an impressive .336/.432/.575.
It was a sub-20 percent chase rate for the season with plus or better contact skills. The exit velocities are better this year but still lower than you would like to see. Alvarez probably plays best in a points league format but still has some intrigue in roto leagues due to the high floor-to-hit and batting average potential.
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trends: Velocity Trends
Cole Ragans is someone to monitor, as his his fastball velocity is way down. So it brings a good point to look at, who should we be monitoring with velocity trending in the right and wrong direction.
Fastball Velocity Fallers
| Player | April FB Velo | May Velo | June Velo | July Velo |
| Chris Bassitt | 92.8 | 92.7 | 92.9 | 91.4 |
| Cole Ragans | 96.3 | 95.7 | 95.7 | 94.3 |
| Tanner Bibee | 94.1 | 95.1 | 94.9 | 93.8 |
| Aaron Civale | 91.3 | 92.5 | 92.6 | 91.9 |
| Griffin Canning | 93 | 93.9 | 93.9 | 93.2 |
Fastball Velocity Gainers
| Player | April FB Velo | May Velo | June Velo | July Velo |
| Dylan Cease | 96.7 | 96.7 | 96.6 | 97.8 |
| Kevin Gausman | 93.7 | 93.9 | 93.6 | 94.5 |
| Jack Flaherty | 93.8 | 93.8 | 92.8 | 93.7 |
| Gavin Stone | 94.8 | 94.3 | 94.8 | 95.6 |
| Lance Lynn | 91.9 | 92.2 | 92.4 | 93.2 |
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys and Sells
Who is Tyler Fitzgerald, and does his incredible stretch matter? In 100 Major League plate appearances this year, Fitzgerald has a .322/.390/.600 slash with six home runs and seven stolen bases. Since returning to a regular starter role on June 30, he has put up an absurd .458/.536/1.125 slash with five home runs, and those five home runs have come in consecutive games.
So, is Fitzgerald legit? It seems like every year, a 26 or 27-year-old journeyman pops off and looks legit. But Fitzgerald has some pedigree. He was a fourth-round draftee out of Louisville in 2019 and received a $495k signing bonus. He has also put up solid starts in the minors the last few years, hitting 20 or more home runs for three straight years, and is pacing for 20 or more this season. The hit tool is solid as well. Between 2023 and 2024, in the minors, Fitzgerald has a slash of .294/.370/.538.
While the exit velocity data is not off the charts, Fitzgerald does some things well to allow him to get to power; lift and pull. He consistently hits the ball at ideal launch angles and gets to the pull side regularly. Pair that with 97th percentile sprint speed and you have an interesting power and speed threat.
I think I am buying the "Fitzmagic." At least grab him and see where it goes.
I might look to cash out on Ezequiel Tovar if you could. He started the year extremely hot before some struggles and is now scorching hot again. With hits in his last 11 games, seven of those have been multi-hit games. Tovar even has three home runs over that span.
For the season, Tovar has a .280/.306/.473 slash with 17 home runs, and it seems like he might just be breaking out as a 22-year-old. So why would I cash out?
Under the hood, it looks highly concerning. Tovar has the highest chase rate in baseball at 44.6 percent, and his overall contact rate of 64 percent ranks in the 4th percentile among all hitters. Having a hyper-aggressive nature, Tovar rarely takes a walk, which gives him a low OBP floor.
The hard-hit and exit velocity data is underwhelming too. He benefits from hitting the ball at ideal angles, having a 78th-percentile sweet-spot rate. The exit velocities and hard-hit rates are well below average.
You may be concerned about the home and away splits in Coors, but Tovar actually has nearly identical home and away splits, with 11 of his 17 home runs coming on the road. It is interesting, but I still think you can cash out and get a pretty good return for Tovar in a deal.
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