EARLY NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD: IMPACT OF INJURIES TO COOPER KUPP, AARON JONES, AND KENNETH WALKER III
We’re now onto Week 12, which includes a three-game Thanksgiving Day slate and the first-ever NFL game on Black Friday. No teams are on a bye week either, meaning I have NFL picks to give out for 16 games this week. So, after an initial review of the betting lines, here are my early NFL Week 12 predictions, picks against the spread, over/under bets, and more.
NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks
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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Odds
Spread
Lions -7.5
Moneyline
Packers +290, Lions -7.5
Total
45.5
The Lions avoided an upset by the Chicago Bears at home on Sunday, while the Packers had their best offensive performance of the season in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. This was the same amount of points the Lions were favored by against the Bears, but Green Bay is a better team, and it’s a short week? With the hook, I like the Packers.
Pick: Packers +7.5
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
Spread
Cowboys -11
Moneyline
Commanders +425, Cowboys -550
Total
46.5
This is just too many points. The Commanders had one of the unluckiest games in recent memory today, as they lost three fumbles and threw three interceptions, combining for six turnovers. The Cowboys beat up on bad teams, but the Commanders are at least a respectable opponent. This feels like an overreaction to Sunday’s box scores.
Pick: Commanders +11
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
Spread
49ers -6
Moneyline
49ers -275, Seahawks +225
Total
43.5
The gap between these two teams is far greater than their records would indicate, and we don’t know how healthy Geno Smith will be on a short week. The 49ers are maybe the best team in football when they’re at full strength, which they are at the moment. No team has come close to beating them when they have their offense completely healthy, and I don’t think Seattle will be the first.
Pick: 49ers -6
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Odds
Spread
Dolphins -7
Moneyline
Dolphins -360, Jets +290
Total
42.5
It feels incredibly gross to back a Jets team that hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in 15 quarters plus overtime, but this seems like too many points for a Dolphins team that has struggled against every respectable defense they have faced. But I don’t want to put my hard-earned money on any Jets quarterback. I’ll lean with the under here, which has hit in five consecutive Jets games.
Pick: Under 42.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
Spread
Bengals -1
Moneyline
Steelers -110, Bengals -110
Total
35.5
The 6-4 Steelers being underdogs to the Jake Browning-led Bengals tells you everything you need to know about this team. The Steelers still have yet to outgain any opponent in offensive yards in a single game this season, can they end this streak against Cincinnati?
MORE: Joe Burrow Injury Aftermath — Bengals Super Bowl Odds Take a Massive Hit
Even if the Steelers are a fraudulent team, it seems almost disrespectful to Mike Tomlin for them to be underdogs against Browning, even on the road. I won’t be betting on this just yet, but my initial lean is to take the Steelers, even if it appears I’m walking into a trap.
Pick: Lean Steelers +1
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
Spread
Titans -4
Moneyline
Panthers +165, Titans -195
Total
37.5
I know the Panthers might be the worst team in the NFL, but who are the Titans to be 4-point favorites against anybody?! As long as this stays above a field goal, this seems like a no-brainer pick for the Panthers, which is something I thought I would never say this season. One lock for this game is that it will not make the cut for my quad-box on NFL Sunday Ticket next week.
Pick: Panthers +4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
Spread
Colts -1.5
Moneyline
Buccaneers +105, Colts -125
Total
42.5
No strong thoughts on the side here, as I think these are two evenly matched teams, as evidenced by the spread that implies this would basically be a toss-up game on a neutral field. If anything, I would lean with the Colts here, as this feels slightly low when you consider home-field advantage and rest coming off their bye week.
Pick: Lean Colts -1.5
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Odds
Spread
Patriots -3.5
Moneyline
Patriots -185, Giants +155
Total
33.5
This line is awfully suspicious. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites on the road?! They’re giving a field goal … plus the hook?!
The Giants had an incredibly lucky win today thanks to six Commanders turnovers, including three lost fumbles. Mac Jones is obviously a very turnover-prone quarterback in his own right, but I don’t think the Giants will have the same turnover luck two weeks in a row.
This line also feels like a trap that I don’t want to fall into, making me even more inclined to take the Patriots. If Bill Belichick still has his fastball, I can’t see Tommy DeVito having any success in this one.
Pick: Patriots -3.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
Spread
Falcons -1
Moneyline
Saints -110, Falcons -110
Total
41.5
These are two teams I have no interest in betting on and two of the most boring offenses to watch in the NFL. Overs have hit in three straight Falcons games in a row, but two of those games came against the Titans and Arizona Cardinals, two of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Before that, unders hit in five straight Falcons games. It also helps that Desmond Ridder is back as their starting quarterback, who has a tendency to turn the ball over near the end zone.
Pick: Under 41.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Odds
Spread
Jaguars -1
Moneyline
Jaguars -115, Texans -105
Total
45.5
I’m surprised to see the Texans as home underdogs here, as you can make a strong argument they’re the better team. They have a better point differential for the season and have a way more consistent offense. The Jaguars’ offense came back to life on Sunday, but that was against a terrible Titans team. In C.J. Stroud we trust.
Pick: Texans +1
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
Spread
Rams -1
Moneyline
Rams -115, Cardinals -105
Total
46.5
The Rams’ offense takes a big hit if Cooper Kupp is out for an extended period, as he left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and didn’t return. With the Rams coming off a big win against the Seahawks, my gut is telling me to roll with the home underdog here in this divisional matchup.
MORE: What Are the Key Numbers When Betting on the NFL?
The last time these two teams played, the Cardinals only put up nine points, but they were without Kyler Murray and James Conner. If the Rams don’t have Kupp, I think these are close to evenly-matched teams, with Arizona having the home-field advantage.
Pick: Cardinals +1
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
Spread
Ravens -4
Moneyline
Ravens -200, Chargers +170
Total
46.5
Losing Mark Andrews for the season could be a huge blow to this Ravens offense, even against a Chargers defense that is one of the worst units in the NFL and just allowed nearly 400 yards of offense to the Packers. They’ll have a long week to prepare for their first game without Andrews, but that, combined with the Chargers’ struggles against top defenses this season, has me liking another prime-time under.
Pick: Under 46.5
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2023-11-20T11:36:01Z dg43tfdfdgfd